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Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals

Andrea Brizzi, Charles Whittaker, Luciana Servo, Iwona Hawryluk, Carlos Prete, William de Souza, Renato Aguiar, Leonardo Araujo, Leonardo Bastos, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Lewis Buss, Darlan Candido, Marcia Castro, Silvia Costa, Julio Croda, Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos, Christopher Dye, Seth Flaxman, Paula Fonseca, Victor Geddes, Bernardo Gutierrez, Philippe Lemey, Anna Levin, Thomas Mellan, Diego Bonfim, Xenia Miscouridou, Swapnil Mishra, Mélodie Monod, Filipe Moreira, Bruce Nelson, Rafael Pereira, Otavio Ranzani, Ricardo Schnekenberg, Elizaveta Semenova, Raphael Sonnabend, Renan Souza, Xiaoyue Xi, Ester Sabino, Nuno Faria, Samir Bhatt, Oliver Ratmann,

The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma’s spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of ... Read more >>

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Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe.

Mrinank Sharma, Sören Mindermann, Charlie Rogers-Smith, Gavin Leech, Benedict Snodin, Janvi Ahuja, Jonas B Sandbrink, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, George Altman, Gurpreet Dhaliwal, Lukas Finnveden, Alexander John Norman, Sebastian B Oehm, Julia Fabienne Sandkühler, Laurence Aitchison, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Thomas Mellan, Jan Kulveit, Leonid Chindelevitch, Seth Flaxman, Yarin Gal, Swapnil Mishra, Samir Bhatt, Jan Markus Brauner,

European governments use non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control resurging waves of COVID-19. However, they only have outdated estimates for how effective individual NPIs were in the first wave. We estimate the effectiveness of 17 NPIs in Europe's second wave from subnational case and death data by introducing a flexible hierarchical ... Read more >>

Nat Commun (Nature communications)
[2021, 12(1):5820]

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Genomic characterization and epidemiology of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in Delhi, India.

Mahesh S Dhar, Robin Marwal, Radhakrishnan Vs, Kalaiarasan Ponnusamy, Bani Jolly, Rahul C Bhoyar, Viren Sardana, Salwa Naushin, Mercy Rophina, Thomas A Mellan, Swapnil Mishra, Charles Whittaker, Saman Fatihi, Meena Datta, Priyanka Singh, Uma Sharma, Rajat Ujjainiya, Nitin Bhatheja, Mohit Kumar Divakar, Manoj K Singh, Mohamed Imran, Vigneshwar Senthivel, Ranjeet Maurya, Neha Jha, Priyanka Mehta, Vivekanand A, Pooja Sharma, Arvinden Vr, Urmila Chaudhary, Namita Soni, Lipi Thukral, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Rajesh Pandey, Debasis Dash, Mohammed Faruq, Hemlata Lall, Hema Gogia, Preeti Madan, Sanket Kulkarni, Himanshu Chauhan, Shantanu Sengupta, Sandhya Kabra, , Ravindra K Gupta, Sujeet K Singh, Anurag Agrawal, Partha Rakshit, Vinay Nandicoori, Karthik Bharadwaj Tallapaka, Divya Tej Sowpati, K Thangaraj, Murali Dharan Bashyam, Ashwin Dalal, Sridhar Sivasubbu, Vinod Scaria, Ajay Parida, Sunil K Raghav, Punit Prasad, Apurva Sarin, Satyajit Mayor, Uma Ramakrishnan, Dasaradhi Palakodeti, Aswin Sai Narain Seshasayee, Manoj Bhat, Yogesh Shouche, Ajay Pillai, Tanzin Dikid, Saumitra Das, Arindam Maitra, Sreedhar Chinnaswamy, Nidhan Kumar Biswas, Anita Sudhir Desai, Chitra Pattabiraman, M V Manjunatha, Reeta S Mani, Gautam Arunachal Udupi, Priya Abraham, Potdar Varsha Atul, Sarah S Cherian,

[Figure: see text]. ... Read more >>

Science (Science (New York, N.Y.))
[2021, 374(6570):995-999]

Cited: 7 times

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The association between mechanical ventilator compatible bed occupancy and mortality risk in intensive care patients with COVID-19: a national retrospective cohort study.

Harrison Wilde, Thomas Mellan, Iwona Hawryluk, John M Dennis, Spiros Denaxas, Christina Pagel, Andrew Duncan, Samir Bhatt, Seth Flaxman, Bilal A Mateen, Sebastian J Vollmer,

<h4>Background</h4>The literature paints a complex picture of the association between mortality risk and ICU strain. In this study, we sought to determine if there is an association between mortality risk in intensive care units (ICU) and occupancy of beds compatible with mechanical ventilation, as a proxy for strain.<h4>Methods</h4>A national retrospective ... Read more >>

BMC Med (BMC medicine)
[2021, 19(1):213]

Cited: 1 time

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Changing composition of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and rise of Delta variant in England.

Swapnil Mishra, Sören Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, Charles Whittaker, Thomas A Mellan, Thomas Wilton, Dimitra Klapsa, Ryan Mate, Martin Fritzsche, Maria Zambon, Janvi Ahuja, Adam Howes, Xenia Miscouridou, Guy P Nason, Oliver Ratmann, Elizaveta Semenova, Gavin Leech, Julia Fabienne Sandkühler, Charlie Rogers-Smith, Michaela Vollmer, H Juliette T Unwin, Yarin Gal, Meera Chand, Axel Gandy, Javier Martin, Erik Volz, Neil M Ferguson, Samir Bhatt, Jan M Brauner, Seth Flaxman, ,

<h4>Background</h4>Since its emergence in Autumn 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC) B.1.1.7 (WHO label Alpha) rapidly became the dominant lineage across much of Europe. Simultaneously, several other VOCs were identified globally. Unlike B.1.1.7, some of these VOCs possess mutations thought to confer partial immune escape. Understanding when and how ... Read more >>

EClinicalMedicine (EClinicalMedicine)
[2021, 39:101064]

Cited: 1 time

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Correction: Quantifying Online News Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Text Mining Study and Resource.

Konrad Krawczyk, Tadeusz Chelkowski, Daniel J Laydon, Swapnil Mishra, Denise Xifara, Benjamin Gibert, Seth Flaxman, Thomas Mellan, Veit Schwämmle, Richard Röttger, Johannes T Hadsund, Samir Bhatt,

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/28253.]. ... Read more >>

J Med Internet Res (Journal of medical Internet research)
[2021, 23(7):e31544]

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Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling.

Swapnil Mishra, James A Scott, Daniel J Laydon, Seth Flaxman, Axel Gandy, Thomas A Mellan, H Juliette T Unwin, Michaela Vollmer, Helen Coupland, Oliver Ratmann, Melodie Monod, Harrison H Zhu, Anne Cori, Katy A M Gaythorpe, Lilith K Whittles, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Neil M Ferguson, Samir Bhatt,

The UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in the UK, Sweden and Denmark shaped COVID-19 mortality in each country, using ... Read more >>

Sci Rep (Scientific reports)
[2021, 11(1):16342]

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Gaussian Process Nowcasting: Application to COVID-19 Mortality Reporting

Iwona Hawryluk, Henrique Hoeltgebaum, Swapnil Mishra, Xenia Miscouridou, Ricardo Schnekenberg, Charles Whittaker, Michaela Vollmer, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Thomas Mellan,

Updating observations of a signal due to the delays in the measurement process is a common problem in signal processing, with prominent examples in a wide range of fields. An important example of this problem is the nowcasting of COVID-19 mortality: given a stream of reported counts of daily deaths, ... Read more >>

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Genomic characterization and Epidemiology of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in Delhi, India

Mahesh Dhar, Robin Marwal, VS Radhakrishnan, Kalaiarasan Ponnusamy, Bani Jolly, Rahul Bhoyar, Viren Sardana, Salwa Naushin, Mercy Rophina, Thomas Mellan, Swapnil Mishra, Charles Whittaker, Saman Fatihi, Meena Datta, Priyanka Singh, Uma Sharma, Rajat Ujjainiya, Nitin Batheja, Mohit Kumar Divakar, Manoj Singh, Mohamed Imran, Vigneshwar Senthivel, Ranjeet Maurya, Neha Jha, Priyanka Mehta, Vivekanand, Pooja Sharma, VR Arvinden, Urmila Chaudhary, Namita Soni, Lipi Thukral, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Rajesh Pandey, Debasis Dash, Mohammed Faruq, Hemlata Lall, Hema Gogia, Preeti Madan, Sanket Kulkarni, Himanshu Chauhan, Shantanu Sengupta, Sandhya Kabra, Ravindra Gupta, Sujeet Singh, Anurag Agrawal, Partha Rakshit, ,

Delhi, the national capital of India, has experienced multiple SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in 2020 and reached a population seropositivity of over 50% by 2021. During April 2021, the city became overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases and fatalities, as a new variant B.1.617.2 (Delta) replaced B.1.1.7 (Alpha). A Bayesian model explains the growth ... Read more >>

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Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 in India: Potential role of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant and delayed interventions

Maxwell Salvatore, Rupam Bhattacharyya, Soumik Purkayastha, Lauren Zimmermann, Debashree Ray, Aditi Hazra, Michael Kleinsasser, Thomas Mellan, Charlie Whittaker, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Swapnil Mishra, Bhramar Mukherjee,

India has seen a surge of SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths in early part of 2021, despite having controlled the epidemic during 2020. Building on a two-strain, semi-mechanistic model that synthesizes mortality and genomic data, we find evidence that altered epidemiological properties of B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant play an important role in ... Read more >>

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Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil.

Nuno R Faria, Thomas A Mellan, Charles Whittaker, Ingra M Claro, Darlan da S Candido, Swapnil Mishra, Myuki A E Crispim, Flavia C S Sales, Iwona Hawryluk, John T McCrone, Ruben J G Hulswit, Lucas A M Franco, Mariana S Ramundo, Jaqueline G de Jesus, Pamela S Andrade, Thais M Coletti, Giulia M Ferreira, Camila A M Silva, Erika R Manuli, Rafael H M Pereira, Pedro S Peixoto, Moritz U G Kraemer, Nelson Gaburo, Cecilia da C Camilo, Henrique Hoeltgebaum, William M Souza, Esmenia C Rocha, Leandro M de Souza, Mariana C de Pinho, Leonardo J T Araujo, Frederico S V Malta, Aline B de Lima, Joice do P Silva, Danielle A G Zauli, Alessandro C de S Ferreira, Ricardo P Schnekenberg, Daniel J Laydon, Patrick G T Walker, Hannah M Schlüter, Ana L P Dos Santos, Maria S Vidal, Valentina S Del Caro, Rosinaldo M F Filho, Helem M Dos Santos, Renato S Aguiar, José L Proença-Modena, Bruce Nelson, James A Hay, Mélodie Monod, Xenia Miscouridou, Helen Coupland, Raphael Sonabend, Michaela Vollmer, Axel Gandy, Carlos A Prete, Vitor H Nascimento, Marc A Suchard, Thomas A Bowden, Sergei L K Pond, Chieh-Hsi Wu, Oliver Ratmann, Neil M Ferguson, Christopher Dye, Nick J Loman, Philippe Lemey, Andrew Rambaut, Nelson A Fraiji, Maria do P S S Carvalho, Oliver G Pybus, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Ester C Sabino,

Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Manaus, Brazil, resurged in late 2020 despite previously high levels of infection. Genome sequencing of viruses sampled in Manaus between November 2020 and January 2021 revealed the emergence and circulation of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern. Lineage P.1 ... Read more >>

Science (Science (New York, N.Y.))
[2021, 372(6544):815-821]

Cited: 203 times

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Quantifying Online News Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Text Mining Study and Resource.

Konrad Krawczyk, Tadeusz Chelkowski, Daniel J Laydon, Swapnil Mishra, Denise Xifara, Benjamin Gibert, Seth Flaxman, Thomas Mellan, Veit Schwämmle, Richard Röttger, Johannes T Hadsund, Samir Bhatt,

<h4>Background</h4>Before the advent of an effective vaccine, nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and lockdowns, have been the primary measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Such measures are highly effective when there is high population-wide adherence, which requires information on current risks posed by the pandemic alongside a clear ... Read more >>

J Med Internet Res (Journal of medical Internet research)
[2021, 23(6):e28253]

Cited: 2 times

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Genomics and epidemiology of a novel SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil

Nuno Faria, Thomas Mellan, Charles Whittaker, Ingra Claro, Darlan da Candido, Swapnil Mishra, Myuki Crispim, Flavia Sales, Iwona Hawryluk, John McCrone, Ruben Hulswit, Lucas Franco, Mariana Ramundo, Jaqueline de Jesus, Pamela Andrade, Thais Coletti, Giulia Ferreira, Camila Silva, Erika Manuli, Rafael Pereira, Pedro Peixoto, Moritz Kraemer, Nelson Gaburo, Cecilia da Camilo, Henrique Hoeltgebaum, William Souza, Esmenia Rocha, Leandro de Souza, Mariana de Pinho, Leonardo Araujo, Frederico Malta, Aline de Lima, Joice do Silva, Danielle Zauli, Alessandro de Ferreira, Ricardo Schnekenberg, Daniel Laydon, Patrick Walker, Hannah Schlüter, Ana dos Santos, Maria Vidal, Valentina Del Caro, Rosinaldo Filho, Helem dos Santos, Renato Aguiar, José Modena, Bruce Nelson, James Hay, Melodie Monod, Xenia Miscouridou, Helen Coupland, Raphael Sonabend, Michaela Vollmer, Axel Gandy, Marc Suchard, Thomas Bowden, Sergei Pond, Chieh-Hsi Wu, Oliver Ratmann, Neil Ferguson, Christopher Dye, Nick Loman, Philippe Lemey, Andrew Rambaut, Nelson Fraiji, Maria do Carvalho, Oliver Pybus, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Ester Sabino,

Cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Manaus, Brazil, resurged in late 2020, despite high levels of previous infection there. Through genome sequencing of viruses sampled in Manaus between November 2020 and January 2021, we identified the emergence and circulation of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern, lineage P.1, that acquired 17 ... Read more >>

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Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria.

Oliver J Watson, Mervat Alhaffar, Zaki Mehchy, Charles Whittaker, Zack Akil, Nicholas F Brazeau, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Arran Hamlet, Hayley A Thompson, Marc Baguelin, Richard G FitzJohn, Edward Knock, John A Lees, Lilith K Whittles, Thomas Mellan, Peter Winskill, , Natasha Howard, Hannah Clapham, Francesco Checchi, Neil Ferguson, Azra Ghani, Emma Beals, Patrick Walker,

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial mortality worldwide. However, to date, countries in the Middle East and Africa have reported considerably lower mortality rates than in Europe and the Americas. Motivated by reports of an overwhelmed health system, we estimate the likely under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality in Damascus, Syria. ... Read more >>

Nat Commun (Nature communications)
[2021, 12(1):2394]

Cited: 3 times

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Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions in Europe’s second wave of COVID-19

Mrinank Sharma, Sören Mindermann, Charlie Rogers-Smith, Gavin Leech, Benedict Snodin, Janvi Ahuja, Jonas Sandbrink, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, George Altman, Gurpreet Dhaliwal, Lukas Finnveden, Alexander John Norman, Sebastian Oehm, Julia Fabienne Sandkühler, Thomas Mellan, Jan Kulveit, Leonid Chindelevitch, Seth Flaxman, Yarin Gal, Swapnil Mishra, Jan Markus Brauner, Samir Bhatt,

As European governments face resurging waves of COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) continue to be the primary tool for infection control. However, updated estimates of their relative effectiveness have been absent for Europe’s second wave, largely due to a lack of collated data that considers the increased subnational variation and diversity ... Read more >>

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Author Correction: Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo'.

Enrico Lavezzo, Elisa Franchin, Constanze Ciavarella, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Luisa Barzon, Claudia Del Vecchio, Lucia Rossi, Riccardo Manganelli, Arianna Loregian, Nicolò Navarin, Davide Abate, Manuela Sciro, Stefano Merigliano, Ettore De Canale, Maria Cristina Vanuzzo, Valeria Besutti, Francesca Saluzzo, Francesco Onelia, Monia Pacenti, Saverio G Parisi, Giovanni Carretta, Daniele Donato, Luciano Flor, Silvia Cocchio, Giulia Masi, Alessandro Sperduti, Lorenzo Cattarino, Renato Salvador, Michele Nicoletti, Federico Caldart, Gioele Castelli, Eleonora Nieddu, Beatrice Labella, Ludovico Fava, Matteo Drigo, Katy A M Gaythorpe, , Alessandra R Brazzale, Stefano Toppo, Marta Trevisan, Vincenzo Baldo, Christl A Donnelly, Neil M Ferguson, Ilaria Dorigatti, Andrea Crisanti,

Nature (Nature)
[2021, 590(7844):E11]

Cited: 2 times

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Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission.

Pierre Nouvellet, Sangeeta Bhatia, Anne Cori, Kylie E C Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Samir Bhatt, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Nicholas F Brazeau, Lorenzo Cattarino, Laura V Cooper, Helen Coupland, Zulma M Cucunuba, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Bimandra A Djaafara, Ilaria Dorigatti, Oliver D Eales, Sabine L van Elsland, Fabricia F Nascimento, Richard G FitzJohn, Katy A M Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, William D Green, Arran Hamlet, Katharina Hauck, Wes Hinsley, Natsuko Imai, Benjamin Jeffrey, Edward Knock, Daniel J Laydon, John A Lees, Tara Mangal, Thomas A Mellan, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Kris V Parag, Margarita Pons-Salort, Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Steven Riley, H Juliette T Unwin, Robert Verity, Michaela A C Vollmer, Erik Volz, Patrick G T Walker, Caroline E Walters, Haowei Wang, Oliver J Watson, Charles Whittaker, Lilith K Whittles, Xiaoyue Xi, Neil M Ferguson, Christl A Donnelly,

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries ... Read more >>

Nat Commun (Nature communications)
[2021, 12(1):1090]

Cited: 25 times

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Referenced Thermodynamic Integration for Bayesian Model Selection: Application to COVID-19 Model Selection

Iwona Hawryluk, Swapnil Mishra, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Thomas Mellan,

Model selection is a fundamental part of the applied Bayesian statistical methodology. Metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion are commonly used in practice to select models but do not incorporate the uncertainty of the models' parameters and can give misleading choices. One approach that uses the full posterior distribution ... Read more >>

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Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States.

Mélodie Monod, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Xiaoyue Xi, Daniel Hebert, Sivan Bershan, Simon Tietze, Marc Baguelin, Valerie C Bradley, Yu Chen, Helen Coupland, Sarah Filippi, Jonathan Ish-Horowicz, Martin McManus, Thomas Mellan, Axel Gandy, Michael Hutchinson, H Juliette T Unwin, Sabine L van Elsland, Michaela A C Vollmer, Sebastian Weber, Harrison Zhu, Anne Bezancon, Neil M Ferguson, Swapnil Mishra, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Oliver Ratmann, ,

After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility ... Read more >>

Science (Science (New York, N.Y.))
[2021, 371(6536):]

Cited: 39 times

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A national retrospective cohort study of mechanical ventilator availability and its association with mortality risk in intensive care patients with COVID-19

Harrison Wilde, Thomas Mellan, Iwona Hawryluk, John Dennis, Spiros Denaxas, Christina Pagel, Andrew Duncan, Samir Bhatt, Seth Flaxman, Bilal Mateen, Sebastian Vollmer,

<h4>Objectives: </h4> To determine if there is an association between survival rates in intensive care units (ICU) and occupancy of the unit on the day of admission. <h4>Design:</h4> National retrospective observational cohort study during the COVID-19 pandemic. <h4>Setting:</h4> 90 English hospital trusts (i.e. groups of hospitals functioning as single operational ... Read more >>

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State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States.

H Juliette T Unwin, Swapnil Mishra, Valerie C Bradley, Axel Gandy, Thomas A Mellan, Helen Coupland, Jonathan Ish-Horowicz, Michaela A C Vollmer, Charles Whittaker, Sarah L Filippi, Xiaoyue Xi, Mélodie Monod, Oliver Ratmann, Michael Hutchinson, Fabian Valka, Harrison Zhu, Iwona Hawryluk, Philip Milton, Kylie E C Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Nick F Brazeau, Lorenzo Cattarino, Zulma Cucunuba, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Ilaria Dorigatti, Oliver D Eales, Jeffrey W Eaton, Sabine L van Elsland, Richard G FitzJohn, Katy A M Gaythorpe, William Green, Wes Hinsley, Benjamin Jeffrey, Edward Knock, Daniel J Laydon, John Lees, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Pierre Nouvellet, Lucy Okell, Kris V Parag, Igor Siveroni, Hayley A Thompson, Patrick Walker, Caroline E Walters, Oliver J Watson, Lilith K Whittles, Azra C Ghani, Neil M Ferguson, Steven Riley, Christl A Donnelly, Samir Bhatt, Seth Flaxman,

As of 1st June 2020, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using ... Read more >>

Nat Commun (Nature communications)
[2020, 11(1):6189]

Cited: 22 times

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Inference of COVID-19 epidemiological distributions from Brazilian hospital data.

Iwona Hawryluk, Thomas A Mellan, Henrique Hoeltgebaum, Swapnil Mishra, Ricardo P Schnekenberg, Charles Whittaker, Harrison Zhu, Axel Gandy, Christl A Donnelly, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt,

Knowing COVID-19 epidemiological distributions, such as the time from patient admission to death, is directly relevant to effective primary and secondary care planning, and moreover, the mathematical modelling of the pandemic generally. We determine epidemiological distributions for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 using a large dataset (<i>N</i> = 21 000 - ... Read more >>

J R Soc Interface (Journal of the Royal Society, Interface)
[2020, 17(172):20200596]

Cited: 4 times

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A unified machine learning approach to time series forecasting applied to demand at emergency departments.

Michaela A C Vollmer, Ben Glampson, Thomas Mellan, Swapnil Mishra, Luca Mercuri, Ceire Costello, Robert Klaber, Graham Cooke, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt,

<h4>Background</h4>There were 25.6 million attendances at Emergency Departments (EDs) in England in 2019 corresponding to an increase of 12 million attendances over the past ten years. The steadily rising demand at EDs creates a constant challenge to provide adequate quality of care while maintaining standards and productivity. Managing hospital demand ... Read more >>

BMC Emerg Med (BMC emergency medicine)
[2021, 21(1):9]

Cited: 1 time

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Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China.

Han Fu, Haowei Wang, Xiaoyue Xi, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Yuanrong Wang, Wes Hinsley, Keith J Fraser, Ruth McCabe, Daniela Olivera Mesa, Janetta Skarp, Alice Ledda, Tamsin Dewé, Amy Dighe, Peter Winskill, Sabine L van Elsland, Kylie E C Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Samir Bhatt, Olivia Boyd, Nicholas F Brazeau, Lorenzo Cattarino, Giovanni Charles, Helen Coupland, Zulma M Cucunuba, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Christl A Donnelly, Ilaria Dorigatti, Oliver D Eales, Richard G FitzJohn, Seth Flaxman, Katy A M Gaythorpe, Azra C Ghani, William D Green, Arran Hamlet, Katharina Hauck, David J Haw, Benjamin Jeffrey, Daniel J Laydon, John A Lees, Thomas Mellan, Swapnil Mishra, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Pierre Nouvellet, Lucy Okell, Kris V Parag, Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Steven Riley, Nora Schmit, Hayley A Thompson, H Juliette T Unwin, Robert Verity, Michaela A C Vollmer, Erik Volz, Patrick G T Walker, Caroline E Walters, Oliver J Watson, Charles Whittaker, Lilith K Whittles, Natsuko Imai, Sangeeta Bhatia, Neil M Ferguson,

<h4>Objectives</h4>In this data collation study, we aimed to provide a comprehensive database describing the epidemic trends and responses during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) throughout the main provinces in China.<h4>Methods</h4>From mid-January to March 2020, we extracted publicly available data regarding the spread and control of COVID-19 from ... Read more >>

Int J Infect Dis (International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases)
[2021, 102:463-471]

Cited: 1 time

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SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China.

Hayley A Thompson, Natsuko Imai, Amy Dighe, Kylie E C Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Samir Bhatt, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Olivia Boyd, Nicholas F Brazeau, Lorenzo Cattarino, Laura V Cooper, Helen Coupland, Zulma Cucunuba, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Bimandra Djaafara, Ilaria Dorigatti, Sabine van Elsland, Richard FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy A M Gaythorpe, Will Green, Timothy Hallett, Arran Hamlet, David Haw, Sarah Hayes, Wes Hinsley, Benjamin Jeffrey, Edward Knock, Daniel J Laydon, John Lees, Tara D Mangal, Thomas Mellan, Swapnil Mishra, Andria Mousa, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Pierre Nouvellet, Lucy Okell, Kris V Parag, Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Steven Riley, H Juliette T Unwin, Robert Verity, Michaela Vollmer, Erik Volz, Patrick G T Walker, Caroline Walters, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Oliver J Watson, Charles Whittaker, Lilith K Whittles, Peter Winskill, Xiaoyue Xi, Christl A Donnelly, Neil M Ferguson,

J Travel Med (Journal of travel medicine)
[2020, 27(8):]

Cited: 1 time

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