Full Text Journal Articles by
Author Seth Flaxman

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Long COVID in children.

Deepti Gurdasani, Athena Akrami, Valerie C Bradley, Anthony Costello, Trisha Greenhalgh, Seth Flaxman, Martin McKee, Susan Michie, Christina Pagel, Sarah Rasmussen, Gabriel Scally, Christian Yates, Hisham Ziauddeen,

Lancet Child Adolesc Health (The Lancet. Child & adolescent health)
[2022, 6(1):e2]

Cited: 0 times

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Using deep convolutional neural networks to forecast spatial patterns of Amazonian deforestation

James Ball, Katerina Petrova, David Coomes, Seth Flaxman,

<h4>A bstract </h4> Tropical forests are subject to diverse deforestation pressures but their conservation is essential to achieve global climate goals. Predicting the location of deforestation is challenging due to the complexity of the natural and human systems involved but accurate and timely forecasts could enable effective planning and on-the-ground ... Read more >>

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Track Omicron's spread with molecular data.

Lesley Scott, Nei-Yuan Hsiao, Sikhuline Moyo, Lavanya Singh, Houriiyah Tegally, Graeme Dor, Piet Maes, Oliver G Pybus, Moritz U G Kraemer, Elizaveta Semenova, Samir Bhatt, Seth Flaxman, Nuno R Faria, Tulio de Oliveira,

[Figure: see text]. ... Read more >>

Science (Science (New York, N.Y.))
[2021, 374(6574):1454-1455]

Cited: 1 time

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Unrepresentative big surveys significantly overestimated US vaccine uptake.

Valerie C Bradley, Shiro Kuriwaki, Michael Isakov, Dino Sejdinovic, Xiao-Li Meng, Seth Flaxman,

Surveys are a crucial tool for understanding public opinion and behaviour, and their accuracy depends on maintaining statistical representativeness of their target populations by minimizing biases from all sources. Increasing data size shrinks confidence intervals but magnifies the effect of survey bias: an instance of the Big Data Paradox<sup>1</sup>. Here we ... Read more >>

Nature (Nature)
[2021, 600(7890):695-700]

Cited: 2 times

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Unrepresentative Big Surveys Significantly Overestimate US Vaccine Uptake

Valerie Bradley, Shiro Kuriwaki, Michael Isakov, Dino Sejdinovic, Xiao-Li Meng, Seth Flaxman,

Surveys are a crucial tool for understanding public opinion and behavior, and their accuracy depends on maintaining statistical representativeness of their target populations by minimizing biases from all sources. Increasing data size shrinks confidence intervals but magnifies the impact of survey bias, an instance of the Big Data Paradox (Meng ... Read more >>

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Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals

Andrea Brizzi, Charles Whittaker, Luciana Servo, Iwona Hawryluk, Carlos Prete, William de Souza, Renato Aguiar, Leonardo Araujo, Leonardo Bastos, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Lewis Buss, Darlan Candido, Marcia Castro, Silvia Costa, Julio Croda, Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos, Christopher Dye, Seth Flaxman, Paula Fonseca, Victor Geddes, Bernardo Gutierrez, Philippe Lemey, Anna Levin, Thomas Mellan, Diego Bonfim, Xenia Miscouridou, Swapnil Mishra, Mélodie Monod, Filipe Moreira, Bruce Nelson, Rafael Pereira, Otavio Ranzani, Ricardo Schnekenberg, Elizaveta Semenova, Raphael Sonnabend, Renan Souza, Xiaoyue Xi, Ester Sabino, Nuno Faria, Samir Bhatt, Oliver Ratmann,

The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma’s spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of ... Read more >>

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Vaccinating adolescents against SARS-CoV-2 in England: a risk-benefit analysis.

Deepti Gurdasani, Samir Bhatt, Anthony Costello, Spiros Denaxas, Seth Flaxman, Trisha Greenhalgh, Stephen Griffin, Zoë Hyde, Aris Katzourakis, Martin McKee, Susan Michie, Oliver Ratmann, Stephen Reicher, Gabriel Scally, Christopher Tomlinson, Christian Yates, Hisham Ziauddeen, Christina Pagel,

<h4>Objective</h4>To offer a quantitative risk-benefit analysis of two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination among adolescents in England.<h4>Setting</h4>England.<h4>Design</h4>Following the risk-benefit analysis methodology carried out by the US Centers for Disease Control, we calculated historical rates of hospital admission, Intensive Care Unit admission and death for ascertained SARS-CoV-2 cases in children aged 12-17 ... Read more >>

J R Soc Med (Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine)
[2021, 114(11):513-524]

Cited: 2 times

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Genomic characterization and epidemiology of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in Delhi, India.

Mahesh S Dhar, Robin Marwal, Radhakrishnan Vs, Kalaiarasan Ponnusamy, Bani Jolly, Rahul C Bhoyar, Viren Sardana, Salwa Naushin, Mercy Rophina, Thomas A Mellan, Swapnil Mishra, Charles Whittaker, Saman Fatihi, Meena Datta, Priyanka Singh, Uma Sharma, Rajat Ujjainiya, Nitin Bhatheja, Mohit Kumar Divakar, Manoj K Singh, Mohamed Imran, Vigneshwar Senthivel, Ranjeet Maurya, Neha Jha, Priyanka Mehta, Vivekanand A, Pooja Sharma, Arvinden Vr, Urmila Chaudhary, Namita Soni, Lipi Thukral, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Rajesh Pandey, Debasis Dash, Mohammed Faruq, Hemlata Lall, Hema Gogia, Preeti Madan, Sanket Kulkarni, Himanshu Chauhan, Shantanu Sengupta, Sandhya Kabra, , Ravindra K Gupta, Sujeet K Singh, Anurag Agrawal, Partha Rakshit, Vinay Nandicoori, Karthik Bharadwaj Tallapaka, Divya Tej Sowpati, K Thangaraj, Murali Dharan Bashyam, Ashwin Dalal, Sridhar Sivasubbu, Vinod Scaria, Ajay Parida, Sunil K Raghav, Punit Prasad, Apurva Sarin, Satyajit Mayor, Uma Ramakrishnan, Dasaradhi Palakodeti, Aswin Sai Narain Seshasayee, Manoj Bhat, Yogesh Shouche, Ajay Pillai, Tanzin Dikid, Saumitra Das, Arindam Maitra, Sreedhar Chinnaswamy, Nidhan Kumar Biswas, Anita Sudhir Desai, Chitra Pattabiraman, M V Manjunatha, Reeta S Mani, Gautam Arunachal Udupi, Priya Abraham, Potdar Varsha Atul, Sarah S Cherian,

[Figure: see text]. ... Read more >>

Science (Science (New York, N.Y.))
[2021, 374(6570):995-999]

Cited: 30 times

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COVID-19-Associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death in the United States.

Susan D Hillis, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Andrés Villaveces, Francis B Annor, Leandris Liburd, Greta M Massetti, Zewditu Demissie, James A Mercy, Charles A Nelson, Lucie Cluver, Seth Flaxman, Lorraine Sherr, Christl A Donnelly, Oliver Ratmann, H Juliette T Unwin,

Pediatrics (Pediatrics)
[2021, :]

Cited: 0 times

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Life expectancy and risk of death in 6791 communities in England from 2002 to 2019: high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data.

Theo Rashid, James E Bennett, Christopher J Paciorek, Yvonne Doyle, Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, Seth Flaxman, Daniela Fecht, Mireille B Toledano, Guangquan Li, Hima I Daby, Eric Johnson, Bethan Davies, Majid Ezzati,

<h4>Background</h4>High-resolution data for how mortality and longevity have changed in England, UK are scarce. We aimed to estimate trends from 2002 to 2019 in life expectancy and probabilities of death at different ages for all 6791 middle-layer super output areas (MSOAs) in England.<h4>Methods</h4>We performed a high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil ... Read more >>

Lancet Public Health (The Lancet. Public health)
[2021, 6(11):e805-e816]

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COVID-19-Associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death in the United States.

Susan D Hillis, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Andrés Villaveces, Francis B Annor, Leandris Liburd, Greta M Massetti, Zewditu Demissie, James A Mercy, Charles A Nelson, Lucie Cluver, Seth Flaxman, Lorraine Sherr, Christl A Donnelly, Oliver Ratmann, H Juliette T Unwin,

Pediatrics (Pediatrics)
[2021, :]

Cited: 0 times

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Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe.

Mrinank Sharma, Sören Mindermann, Charlie Rogers-Smith, Gavin Leech, Benedict Snodin, Janvi Ahuja, Jonas B Sandbrink, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, George Altman, Gurpreet Dhaliwal, Lukas Finnveden, Alexander John Norman, Sebastian B Oehm, Julia Fabienne Sandkühler, Laurence Aitchison, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Thomas Mellan, Jan Kulveit, Leonid Chindelevitch, Seth Flaxman, Yarin Gal, Swapnil Mishra, Samir Bhatt, Jan Markus Brauner,

European governments use non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control resurging waves of COVID-19. However, they only have outdated estimates for how effective individual NPIs were in the first wave. We estimate the effectiveness of 17 NPIs in Europe's second wave from subnational case and death data by introducing a flexible hierarchical ... Read more >>

Nat Commun (Nature communications)
[2021, 12(1):5820]

Cited: 2 times

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The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of attendance at emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study.

Michaela A C Vollmer, Sreejith Radhakrishnan, Mara D Kont, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Ceire Costelloe, Kate Honeyford, Paul Aylin, Graham Cooke, Julian Redhead, Alison Sanders, Helen Mangan, Peter J White, Neil Ferguson, Katharina Hauck, Shevanthi Nayagam, Pablo N Perez-Guzman,

<h4>Background</h4>Hospitals in England have undergone considerable change to address the surge in demand imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this on emergency department (ED) attendances is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies.<h4>Methods</h4>This analysis is an observational study of ED attendances at the Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT). ... Read more >>

BMC Health Serv Res (BMC health services research)
[2021, 21(1):1008]

Cited: 1 time

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The association between mechanical ventilator compatible bed occupancy and mortality risk in intensive care patients with COVID-19: a national retrospective cohort study.

Harrison Wilde, Thomas Mellan, Iwona Hawryluk, John M Dennis, Spiros Denaxas, Christina Pagel, Andrew Duncan, Samir Bhatt, Seth Flaxman, Bilal A Mateen, Sebastian J Vollmer,

<h4>Background</h4>The literature paints a complex picture of the association between mortality risk and ICU strain. In this study, we sought to determine if there is an association between mortality risk in intensive care units (ICU) and occupancy of beds compatible with mechanical ventilation, as a proxy for strain.<h4>Methods</h4>A national retrospective ... Read more >>

BMC Med (BMC medicine)
[2021, 19(1):213]

Cited: 3 times

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Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance

Anderson Brito, Elizaveta Semenova, Gytis Dudas, Gabriel Hassler, Chaney Kalinich, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Joses Ho, Houriiyah Tegally, George Githinji, Charles Agoti, Lucy Matkin, Charles Whittaker, Benjamin Howden, Vitali Sintchenko, Neta Zuckerman, Orna Mor, Heather Blankenship, Tulio de Oliveira, Raymond Lin, Marilda Mendonça Siqueira, Paola Cristina Resende, Ana Tereza Vasconcelos, Fernando Spilki, Renato Santana Aguiar, Ivailo Alexiev, Ivan Ivanov, Ivva Philipova, Christine Carrington, Nikita Sahadeo, Céline Gurry, Sebastian Maurer-Stroh, Dhamari Naidoo, Karin von Eije, Mark Perkins, Maria van Kerkhove, Sarah Hill, Ester Sabino, Oliver Pybus, Christopher Dye, Samir Bhatt, Seth Flaxman, Marc Suchard, Nathan Grubaugh, Guy Baele, Nuno Faria, , , , ,

Genomic sequencing provides critical information to track the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2, optimize molecular tests, treatments and vaccines, and guide public health responses. To investigate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, we estimated the impact of sequencing intensity and turnaround times (TAT) on variant detection in ... Read more >>

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Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling.

Swapnil Mishra, James A Scott, Daniel J Laydon, Seth Flaxman, Axel Gandy, Thomas A Mellan, H Juliette T Unwin, Michaela Vollmer, Helen Coupland, Oliver Ratmann, Melodie Monod, Harrison H Zhu, Anne Cori, Katy A M Gaythorpe, Lilith K Whittles, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Neil M Ferguson, Samir Bhatt,

The UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in the UK, Sweden and Denmark shaped COVID-19 mortality in each country, using ... Read more >>

Sci Rep (Scientific reports)
[2021, 11(1):16342]

Cited: 0 times

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Is the cure really worse than the disease? The health impacts of lockdowns during COVID-19.

Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, Samir Bhatt, Oliver Ratmann, Jan Markus Brauner, Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Mrinank Sharma, Sören Mindermann, Valerie Bradley, Michaela Vollmer, Lea Merone, Gavin Yamey,

BMJ Glob Health (BMJ global health)
[2021, 6(8):]

Cited: 4 times

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Changing composition of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and rise of Delta variant in England.

Swapnil Mishra, Sören Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, Charles Whittaker, Thomas A Mellan, Thomas Wilton, Dimitra Klapsa, Ryan Mate, Martin Fritzsche, Maria Zambon, Janvi Ahuja, Adam Howes, Xenia Miscouridou, Guy P Nason, Oliver Ratmann, Elizaveta Semenova, Gavin Leech, Julia Fabienne Sandkühler, Charlie Rogers-Smith, Michaela Vollmer, H Juliette T Unwin, Yarin Gal, Meera Chand, Axel Gandy, Javier Martin, Erik Volz, Neil M Ferguson, Samir Bhatt, Jan M Brauner, Seth Flaxman, ,

<h4>Background</h4>Since its emergence in Autumn 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC) B.1.1.7 (WHO label Alpha) rapidly became the dominant lineage across much of Europe. Simultaneously, several other VOCs were identified globally. Unlike B.1.1.7, some of these VOCs possess mutations thought to confer partial immune escape. Understanding when and how ... Read more >>

EClinicalMedicine (EClinicalMedicine)
[2021, 39:101064]

Cited: 14 times

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Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study.

Susan D Hillis, H Juliette T Unwin, Yu Chen, Lucie Cluver, Lorraine Sherr, Philip S Goldman, Oliver Ratmann, Christl A Donnelly, Samir Bhatt, Andrés Villaveces, Alexander Butchart, Gretchen Bachman, Laura Rawlings, Phil Green, Charles A Nelson, Seth Flaxman,

<h4>Background</h4>The COVID-19 pandemic priorities have focused on prevention, detection, and response. Beyond morbidity and mortality, pandemics carry secondary impacts, such as children orphaned or bereft of their caregivers. Such children often face adverse consequences, including poverty, abuse, and institutionalisation. We provide estimates for the magnitude of this problem resulting from ... Read more >>

Lancet (Lancet (London, England))
[2021, 398(10298):391-402]

Cited: 14 times

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Correction: Quantifying Online News Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Text Mining Study and Resource.

Konrad Krawczyk, Tadeusz Chelkowski, Daniel J Laydon, Swapnil Mishra, Denise Xifara, Benjamin Gibert, Seth Flaxman, Thomas Mellan, Veit Schwämmle, Richard Röttger, Johannes T Hadsund, Samir Bhatt,

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/28253.]. ... Read more >>

J Med Internet Res (Journal of medical Internet research)
[2021, 23(7):e31544]

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Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 in India: Potential role of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant and delayed interventions

Maxwell Salvatore, Rupam Bhattacharyya, Soumik Purkayastha, Lauren Zimmermann, Debashree Ray, Aditi Hazra, Michael Kleinsasser, Thomas Mellan, Charlie Whittaker, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Swapnil Mishra, Bhramar Mukherjee,

India has seen a surge of SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths in early part of 2021, despite having controlled the epidemic during 2020. Building on a two-strain, semi-mechanistic model that synthesizes mortality and genomic data, we find evidence that altered epidemiological properties of B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant play an important role in ... Read more >>

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Regularised B-splines projected Gaussian Process priors to estimate the age profile of COVID-19 deaths before and after vaccine roll-out

Mélodie Monod, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Andrea Brizzi, Yu Chen, Vidoushee Jogarah, Yuanrong Wang, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Oliver Ratmann,

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe public health consequences in the United States. The United States began a vaccination campaign at the end of 2020 targeting primarily elderly residents before extending access to younger individuals. With both COVID-19 infection fatality ratios and vaccine uptake being heterogeneous across ages, an important ... Read more >>

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Unrepresentative Big Surveys Significantly Overestimate US Vaccine Uptake

Valerie Bradley, Shiro Kuriwaki, Michael Isakov, Dino Sejdinovic, Xiao-Li Meng, Seth Flaxman,

Surveys are a crucial tool for understanding public opinion and behavior, and their accuracy depends on maintaining statistical representativeness of their target populations by minimizing biases from all sources. Increasing data size shrinks confidence intervals but magnifies the impact of survey bias – an instance of the Big Data Paradox ... Read more >>

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Gaussian Process Nowcasting: Application to COVID-19 Mortality Reporting

Iwona Hawryluk, Henrique Hoeltgebaum, Swapnil Mishra, Xenia Miscouridou, Ricardo Schnekenberg, Charles Whittaker, Michaela Vollmer, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Thomas Mellan,

Updating observations of a signal due to the delays in the measurement process is a common problem in signal processing, with prominent examples in a wide range of fields. An important example of this problem is the nowcasting of COVID-19 mortality: given a stream of reported counts of daily deaths, ... Read more >>

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Evaluating distributional regression strategies for modelling self-reported sexual age-mixing.

Timothy M Wolock, Seth Flaxman, Kathryn A Risher, Tawanda Dadirai, Simon Gregson, Jeffrey W Eaton,

The age dynamics of sexual partnership formation determine patterns of sexually transmitted disease transmission and have long been a focus of researchers studying human immunodeficiency virus. Data on self-reported sexual partner age distributions are available from a variety of sources. We sought to explore statistical models that accurately predict the ... Read more >>

Elife (eLife)
[2021, 10:]

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