Full Text Journal Articles by
Author Karel G M Moons

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Accuracy of approximations to recover incompletely reported logistic regression models depended on other available information.

Toshihiko Takada, Jeroen Hoogland, Chris van Lieshout, Ewoud Schuit, Gary S Collins, Karel G M Moons, Johannes B Reitsma,

To provide approximations to recover the full regression equation across different scenarios of incompletely reported prediction models that were developed from binary logistic regression. In a case study, we considered four common scenarios and illustrated their corresponding approximations: (A) Missing: the intercept, Available: the regression coefficients of predictors, overall frequency ... Read more >>

J Clin Epidemiol (Journal of clinical epidemiology)
[2021, :]

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Risk of bias in studies on prediction models developed using supervised machine learning techniques: systematic review.

Constanza L Andaur Navarro, Johanna A A Damen, Toshihiko Takada, Steven W J Nijman, Paula Dhiman, Jie Ma, Gary S Collins, Ram Bajpai, Richard D Riley, Karel G M Moons, Lotty Hooft,

<h4>Objective</h4>To assess the methodological quality of studies on prediction models developed using machine learning techniques across all medical specialties.<h4>Design</h4>Systematic review.<h4>Data sources</h4>PubMed from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2019.<h4>Eligibility criteria</h4>Articles reporting on the development, with or without external validation, of a multivariable prediction model (diagnostic or prognostic) developed using supervised ... Read more >>

BMJ (BMJ (Clinical research ed.))
[2021, 375:n2281]

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Performance of prediction models for nephropathy in people with type 2 diabetes: systematic review and external validation study.

Roderick C Slieker, Amber A W A van der Heijden, Moneeza K Siddiqui, Marlous Langendoen-Gort, Giel Nijpels, Ron Herings, Talitha L Feenstra, Karel G M Moons, Samira Bell, Petra J Elders, Leen M 't Hart, Joline W J Beulens,

<h4>Objectives</h4>To identify and assess the quality and accuracy of prognostic models for nephropathy and to validate these models in external cohorts of people with type 2 diabetes.<h4>Design</h4>Systematic review and external validation.<h4>Data sources</h4>PubMed and Embase.<h4>Eligibility criteria</h4>Studies describing the development of a model to predict the risk of nephropathy, applicable to people ... Read more >>

BMJ (BMJ (Clinical research ed.))
[2021, 374:n2134]

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A tutorial on individualized treatment effect prediction from randomized trials with a binary endpoint.

Jeroen Hoogland, Joanna IntHout, Michail Belias, Maroeska M Rovers, Richard D Riley, Frank E Harrell, Karel G M Moons, Thomas P A Debray, Johannes B Reitsma,

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary outcome, these predictions of absolute individualized treatment effect require knowledge of the individual's risk without treatment ... Read more >>

Stat Med (Statistics in medicine)
[2021, 40(26):5961-5981]

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Diagnostic accuracy of rapid antigen tests in asymptomatic and presymptomatic close contacts of individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection: cross sectional study.

Ewoud Schuit, Irene K Veldhuijzen, Roderick P Venekamp, Wouter van den Bijllaardt, Suzan D Pas, Esther B Lodder, Richard Molenkamp, Corine H GeurtsvanKessel, Jans Velzing, Robin C Huisman, Lieke Brouwer, Timo L Boelsums, Gregorius J Sips, Kimberly S M Benschop, Lotty Hooft, Janneke H H M van de Wijgert, Susan van den Hof, Karel G M Moons,

<h4>Objective</h4>To assess the diagnostic test accuracy of two rapid antigen tests in asymptomatic and presymptomatic close contacts of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection on day 5 after exposure.<h4>Design</h4>Prospective cross sectional study.<h4>Setting</h4>Four public health service covid-19 test sites in the Netherlands.<h4>Participants</h4>4274 consecutively included close contacts (identified through test-and-trace programme or contact tracing ... Read more >>

BMJ (BMJ (Clinical research ed.))
[2021, 374:n1676]

Cited: 1 time

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Effectiveness of contact tracing apps for SARS-CoV-2: a rapid systematic review.

Kevin Jenniskens, Martin C J Bootsma, Johanna A A G Damen, Michiel S Oerbekke, Robin W M Vernooij, René Spijker, Karel G M Moons, Mirjam E E Kretzschmar, Lotty Hooft,

<h4>Objective</h4>To systematically review evidence on effectiveness of contact tracing apps (CTAs) for SARS-CoV-2 on epidemiological and clinical outcomes.<h4>Design</h4>Rapid systematic review.<h4>Data sources</h4>EMBASE (OVID), MEDLINE (PubMed), BioRxiv and MedRxiv were searched up to 28 October 2020.<h4>Study selection</h4>Studies, both empirical and model-based, assessing effect of CTAs for SARS-CoV-2 on reproduction number (R), total ... Read more >>

BMJ Open (BMJ open)
[2021, 11(7):e050519]

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Alcohol and Brain Development in Adolescents and Young Adults: A Systematic Review of the Literature and Advisory Report of the Health Council of the Netherlands.

Janette de Goede, Kerstin G van der Mark-Reeuwijk, Kees P Braun, Saskia le Cessie, Sarah Durston, Rutger C M E Engels, Anna E Goudriaan, Karel G M Moons, Wilma A M Vollebergh, Taco J de Vries, Reinout W Wiers, Jaap Oosterlaan,

Young people, whose brains are still developing, might entail a greater vulnerability to the effects of alcohol consumption on brain function and development. A committee of experts of the Health Council of the Netherlands evaluated the state of scientific knowledge regarding the question whether alcohol negatively influences brain development in ... Read more >>

Adv Nutr (Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.))
[2021, 12(4):1379-1410]

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Prognostic factors for adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19: a field-wide systematic review and meta-analysis.

Vanesa Bellou, Ioanna Tzoulaki, Maarten van Smeden, Karel G M Moons, Evangelos Evangelou, Lazaros Belbasis,

<h4>Introduction</h4>The individual prognostic factors for COVID-19 are unclear. For this reason, we aimed to present a state-of-the-art systematic review and meta-analysis on the prognostic factors for adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients.<h4>Methods</h4>We systematically reviewed PubMed from January 1, 2020 to July 26, 2020 to identify non-overlapping studies examining the association of ... Read more >>

Eur Respir J (The European respiratory journal)
[2021, :]

Cited: 4 times

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Reporting of prognostic clinical prediction models based on machine learning methods in oncology needs to be improved.

Paula Dhiman, Jie Ma, Constanza Andaur Navarro, Benjamin Speich, Garrett Bullock, Johanna Aa Damen, Shona Kirtley, Lotty Hooft, Richard D Riley, Ben Van Calster, Karel G M Moons, Gary S Collins,

<h4>Objective</h4>Evaluate the completeness of reporting of prognostic prediction models developed using machine learning methods in the field of oncology.<h4>Study design and setting</h4>We conducted a systematic review, searching the MEDLINE and Embase databases between 01/01/2019 and 05/09/2019, for non-imaging studies developing a prognostic clinical prediction model using machine learning methods (as ... Read more >>

J Clin Epidemiol (Journal of clinical epidemiology)
[2021, 138:60-72]

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Developing more generalizable prediction models from pooled studies and large clustered data sets.

Valentijn M T de Jong, Karel G M Moons, Marinus J C Eijkemans, Richard D Riley, Thomas P A Debray,

Prediction models often yield inaccurate predictions for new individuals. Large data sets from pooled studies or electronic healthcare records may alleviate this with an increased sample size and variability in sample characteristics. However, existing strategies for prediction model development generally do not account for heterogeneity in predictor-outcome associations between different ... Read more >>

Stat Med (Statistics in medicine)
[2021, 40(15):3533-3559]

Cited: 1 time

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Prognostic models for predicting the risk of foot ulcer or amputation in people with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and external validation study.

Joline W J Beulens, Josan S Yauw, Petra J M Elders, Talitha Feenstra, Ron Herings, Roderick C Slieker, Karel G M Moons, Giel Nijpels, Amber A van der Heijden,

<h4>Aims/hypothesis</h4>Approximately 25% of people with type 2 diabetes experience a foot ulcer and their risk of amputation is 10-20 times higher than that of people without type 2 diabetes. Prognostic models can aid in targeted monitoring but an overview of their performance is lacking. This study aimed to systematically review ... Read more >>

Diabetologia (Diabetologia)
[2021, 64(7):1550-1562]

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What influences the outcome of active disinvestment processes in healthcare? A qualitative interview study on five recent cases of active disinvestment.

Adriënne H Rotteveel, Mattijs S Lambooij, Joline J A van de Rijt, Job van Exel, Karel G M Moons, G Ardine de Wit,

<h4>Background</h4>Recent attempts of active disinvestment (i.e. withdrawal of reimbursement by means of a policy decision) of reimbursed healthcare interventions in the Netherlands have differed in their outcome: some attempts were successful, with interventions actually being disinvested. Other attempts were terminated at some point, implying unsuccessful disinvestment. This study aimed to ... Read more >>

BMC Health Serv Res (BMC health services research)
[2021, 21(1):298]

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Individual participant data meta-analysis for external validation, recalibration, and updating of a flexible parametric prognostic model.

Joie Ensor, Kym I E Snell, Thomas P A Debray, Paul C Lambert, Maxime P Look, Mamas A Mamas, Karel G M Moons, Richard D Riley,

Individual participant data (IPD) from multiple sources allows external validation of a prognostic model across multiple populations. Often this reveals poor calibration, potentially causing poor predictive performance in some populations. However, rather than discarding the model outright, it may be possible to modify the model to improve performance using recalibration ... Read more >>

Stat Med (Statistics in medicine)
[2021, 40(13):3066-3084]

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Comprehensive toxicity risk profiling in radiation therapy for head and neck cancer: A new concept for individually optimised treatment.

Lisa Van den Bosch, Arjen van der Schaaf, Hans Paul van der Laan, Frank J P Hoebers, Oda B Wijers, Johanna G M van den Hoek, Karel G M Moons, Johannes B Reitsma, Roel J H M Steenbakkers, Ewoud Schuit, Johannes A Langendijk,

<h4>Background and purpose</h4>A comprehensive individual toxicity risk profile is needed to improve radiation treatment optimisation, minimising toxicity burden, in head and neck cancer (HNC) patients. We aimed to develop and externally validate NTCP models for various toxicities at multiple time points.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>Using logistic regression, we determined the relationship between ... Read more >>

Radiother Oncol (Radiotherapy and oncology : journal of the European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology)
[2021, 157:147-154]

Cited: 2 times

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Real-time imputation of missing predictor values improved the application of prediction models in daily practice.

Steven Willem Joost Nijman, T Katrien J Groenhof, Jeroen Hoogland, Michiel L Bots, Menno Brandjes, John J L Jacobs, Folkert W Asselbergs, Karel G M Moons, Thomas P A Debray,

<h4>Objectives</h4>In clinical practice, many prediction models cannot be used when predictor values are missing. We, therefore, propose and evaluate methods for real-time imputation.<h4>Study design and setting</h4>We describe (i) mean imputation (where missing values are replaced by the sample mean), (ii) joint modeling imputation (JMI, where we use a multivariate normal ... Read more >>

J Clin Epidemiol (Journal of clinical epidemiology)
[2021, 134:22-34]

Cited: 1 time

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External validation of prognostic models predicting pre-eclampsia: individual participant data meta-analysis.

Kym I E Snell, John Allotey, Melanie Smuk, Richard Hooper, Claire Chan, Asif Ahmed, Lucy C Chappell, Peter Von Dadelszen, Marcus Green, Louise Kenny, Asma Khalil, Khalid S Khan, Ben W Mol, Jenny Myers, Lucilla Poston, Basky Thilaganathan, Anne C Staff, Gordon C S Smith, Wessel Ganzevoort, Hannele Laivuori, Anthony O Odibo, Javier Arenas Ramírez, John Kingdom, George Daskalakis, Diane Farrar, Ahmet A Baschat, Paul T Seed, Federico Prefumo, Fabricio da Silva Costa, Henk Groen, Francois Audibert, Jacques Masse, Ragnhild B Skråstad, Kjell Å Salvesen, Camilla Haavaldsen, Chie Nagata, Alice R Rumbold, Seppo Heinonen, Lisa M Askie, Luc J M Smits, Christina A Vinter, Per Magnus, Kajantie Eero, Pia M Villa, Anne K Jenum, Louise B Andersen, Jane E Norman, Akihide Ohkuchi, Anne Eskild, Sohinee Bhattacharya, Fionnuala M McAuliffe, Alberto Galindo, Ignacio Herraiz, Lionel Carbillon, Kerstin Klipstein-Grobusch, Seon Ae Yeo, Joyce L Browne, Karel G M Moons, Richard D Riley, Shakila Thangaratinam, ,

<h4>Background</h4>Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk during pregnancy is required to plan management. Although there are many published prediction models for pre-eclampsia, few have been validated in external data. Our objective was to externally validate published prediction models ... Read more >>

BMC Med (BMC medicine)
[2020, 18(1):302]

Cited: 1 time

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The Number of Concomitant Drugs and the Safety of Direct Oral Anticoagulants in Routine Care Patients with Atrial Fibrillation.

Carline J van den Dries, Sander van Doorn, Patrick Souverein, Romin Pajouheshnia, Karel G M Moons, Arno W Hoes, Geert-Jan Geersing, Hendrika A van den Ham,

<b>Background</b>  The benefit of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) versus vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) on major bleeding was less prominent among atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with polypharmacy in post-hoc randomized controlled trials analyses. Whether this phenomenon also exists in routine care is unknown. The aim of the study is to investigate ... Read more >>

TH Open (TH open : companion journal to thrombosis and haemostasis)
[2020, 4(4):e417-e426]

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TRIPOD statement: a preliminary pre-post analysis of reporting and methods of prediction models.

Amir H Zamanipoor Najafabadi, Chava L Ramspek, Friedo W Dekker, Pauline Heus, Lotty Hooft, Karel G M Moons, Wilco C Peul, Gary S Collins, Ewout W Steyerberg, Merel van Diepen,

<h4>Objectives</h4>To assess the difference in completeness of reporting and methodological conduct of published prediction models before and after publication of the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement.<h4>Methods</h4>In the seven general medicine journals with the highest impact factor, we compared the completeness of ... Read more >>

BMJ Open (BMJ open)
[2020, 10(9):e041537]

Cited: 5 times

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UMBRELLA protocol: systematic reviews of multivariable biomarker prognostic models developed to predict clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure.

Maria D L A Vazquez-Montes, Thomas P A Debray, Kathryn S Taylor, Benjamin Speich, Nicholas Jones, Gary S Collins, F D R Richard Hobbs, Emmanuella Magriplis, Hugo Maruri-Aguilar, Karel G M Moons, John Parissis, Rafael Perera, Nia Roberts, Clare J Taylor, Nikolaos P E Kadoglou, Marialena Trivella, ,

<h4>Background</h4>Heart failure (HF) is a chronic and common condition with a rising prevalence, especially in the elderly. Morbidity and mortality rates in people with HF are similar to those with common forms of cancer. Clinical guidelines highlight the need for more detailed prognostic information to optimise treatment and care planning ... Read more >>

Diagn Progn Res (Diagnostic and prognostic research)
[2020, 4:13]

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Integrated management of atrial fibrillation in primary care: results of the ALL-IN cluster randomized trial.

Carline J van den Dries, Sander van Doorn, Frans H Rutten, Ruud Oudega, Sjef J C M van de Leur, Arif Elvan, Lisa Oude Grave, Henk J G Bilo, Karel G M Moons, Arno W Hoes, Geert-Jan Geersing,

<h4>Aims</h4>To evaluate whether integrated care for atrial fibrillation (AF) can be safely orchestrated in primary care.<h4>Methods and results</h4>The ALL-IN trial was a cluster randomized, open-label, pragmatic non-inferiority trial performed in primary care practices in the Netherlands. We randomized 26 practices: 15 to the integrated care intervention and 11 to usual ... Read more >>

Eur Heart J (European heart journal)
[2020, 41(30):2836-2844]

Cited: 9 times

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Diagnosing deep vein thrombosis in cancer patients with suspected symptoms: An individual participant data meta-analysis.

Toshihiko Takada, Sander van Doorn, Sameer Parpia, Kerstin de Wit, David R Anderson, Scott M Stevens, Scott C Woller, Arina J Ten Cate-Hoek, Johan L Elf, Roderik A Kraaijenhagen, Roger E G Schutgens, Phil S Wells, Clive Kearon, Karel G M Moons, Geert-Jan Geersing,

<h4>Background</h4>A previous individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis showed that the Wells rule and D-dimer testing cannot exclude suspected deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in cancer patients.<h4>Objectives</h4>To explore reasons for this reduced diagnostic accuracy and to optimize the diagnostic pathway for cancer patients suspected of DVT.<h4>Patients and methods</h4>Using IPD from 13 studies ... Read more >>

J Thromb Haemost (Journal of thrombosis and haemostasis : JTH)
[2020, 18(9):2245-2252]

Cited: 2 times

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Effect of tailoring anticoagulant treatment duration by applying a recurrence risk prediction model in patients with venous thromboembolism compared to usual care: A randomized controlled trial.

Geert-Jan Geersing, Janneke M T Hendriksen, Nicolaas P A Zuithoff, Kit C Roes, Ruud Oudega, Toshihiko Takada, Roger E G Schutgens, Karel G M Moons,

<h4>Background</h4>Patients with unprovoked (i.e., without the presence of apparent transient risk factors such as recent surgery) venous thromboembolism (VTE) are at risk of recurrence if anticoagulants are stopped after 3-6 months, yet their risk remains heterogeneous. Thus, prolonging anticoagulant treatment should be considered in high-risk patients, whereas stopping is likely ... Read more >>

PLoS Med (PLoS medicine)
[2020, 17(6):e1003142]

Cited: 1 time

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Transparent Reporting of Multivariable Prediction Models in Journal and Conference Abstracts: TRIPOD for Abstracts.

Pauline Heus, Johannes B Reitsma, Gary S Collins, Johanna A A G Damen, Rob J P M Scholten, Douglas G Altman, Karel G M Moons, Lotty Hooft,

Clear and informative reporting in titles and abstracts is essential to help readers and reviewers identify potentially relevant studies and decide whether to read the full text. Although the TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis) statement provides general recommendations for reporting titles and ... Read more >>

Ann Intern Med (Annals of internal medicine)
[2020, :]

Cited: 5 times

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Valuing Healthcare Goods and Services: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis on the WTA-WTP Disparity.

Adriënne H Rotteveel, Mattijs S Lambooij, Nicolaas P A Zuithoff, Job van Exel, Karel G M Moons, G Ardine de Wit,

<h4>Objective</h4>The objective of this systematic review was to review the available evidence on the disparity between willingness to accept (WTA) and willingness to pay (WTP) for healthcare goods and services.<h4>Methods</h4>A tiered approach consisting of (1) a systematic review, (2) an aggregate data meta-analysis, and (3) an individual participant data meta-analysis ... Read more >>

Pharmacoeconomics (PharmacoEconomics)
[2020, 38(5):443-458]

Cited: 4 times

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Key challenges in normal tissue complication probability model development and validation: towards a comprehensive strategy.

Lisa Van den Bosch, Ewoud Schuit, Hans Paul van der Laan, Johannes B Reitsma, Karel G M Moons, Roel J H M Steenbakkers, Frank J P Hoebers, Johannes A Langendijk, Arjen van der Schaaf,

Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) models can be used for treatment plan optimisation and patient selection for emerging treatment techniques. We discuss and suggest methodological approaches to address key challenges in NTCP model development and validation, including: missing data, non-linear response relationships, multicollinearity between predictors, overfitting, generalisability and the prediction ... Read more >>

Radiother Oncol (Radiotherapy and oncology : journal of the European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology)
[2020, 148:151-156]

Cited: 2 times

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