Full Text Journal Articles by
Author Gary S Collins

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Machine Learning and Statistical Prediction of Pitching Arm Kinetics.

Kristen F Nicholson, Gary S Collins, Brian R Waterman, Garrett S Bullock,

<h4>Background</h4>Over the past decade, research has attempted to elucidate the cause of throwing-related injuries in the baseball athlete. However, when considering the entire kinetic chain, full body mechanics, and pitching cycle sequencing, there are hundreds of variables that could influence throwing arm health, and there is a lack of quality ... Read more >>

Am J Sports Med (The American journal of sports medicine)
[2021, :3635465211054506]

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Prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) due to asthma and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.

Saeid Safiri, Kristin Carson-Chahhoud, Nahid Karamzad, Mark J M Sullman, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Ali Taghizadieh, Arielle Wilder Bell, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Khalil Ansarin, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Gary S Collins, Jay S Kaufman,

<h4>Background</h4>Understanding global trends in the point prevalence, deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for asthma will facilitate evidence-based decision making.<h4>Research question</h4>What is the global, regional and national burden of asthma in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI)?<h4>Study design and methods</h4>Publicly ... Read more >>

Chest (Chest)
[2021, :]

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Burden of anemia and its underlying causes in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Saeid Safiri, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Maryam Noori, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Nahid Karamzad, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Mark J M Sullman, Morteza Abdollahi, Gary S Collins, Jay S Kaufman, Jessica A Grieger,

<h4>Background</h4>Anemia is a common disease which affects around 40% of children and 30% of reproductive age women and can have major health consequences. The present study reports the global, regional and national burden of anemia and its underlying causes between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI).<h4>Methods</h4>Publicly ... Read more >>

J Hematol Oncol (Journal of hematology & oncology)
[2021, 14(1):185]

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The current status of risk-stratified breast screening.

Ash Kieran Clift, David Dodwell, Simon Lord, Stavros Petrou, Sir Michael Brady, Gary S Collins, Julia Hippisley-Cox,

Apart from high-risk scenarios such as the presence of highly penetrant genetic mutations, breast screening typically comprises mammography or tomosynthesis strategies defined by age. However, age-based screening ignores the range of breast cancer risks that individual women may possess and is antithetical to the ambitions of personalised early detection. Whilst ... Read more >>

Br J Cancer (British journal of cancer)
[2021, :]

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Risk of bias in studies on prediction models developed using supervised machine learning techniques: systematic review.

Constanza L Andaur Navarro, Johanna A A Damen, Toshihiko Takada, Steven W J Nijman, Paula Dhiman, Jie Ma, Gary S Collins, Ram Bajpai, Richard D Riley, Karel G M Moons, Lotty Hooft,

<h4>Objective</h4>To assess the methodological quality of studies on prediction models developed using machine learning techniques across all medical specialties.<h4>Design</h4>Systematic review.<h4>Data sources</h4>PubMed from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2019.<h4>Eligibility criteria</h4>Articles reporting on the development, with or without external validation, of a multivariable prediction model (diagnostic or prognostic) developed using supervised ... Read more >>

BMJ (BMJ (Clinical research ed.))
[2021, 375:n2281]

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Characterization of Rookie Season Injury and Illness and Career Longevity Among National Basketball Association Players.

Chelsea L Martin, Amelia J H Arundale, Stefan Kluzek, Tyler Ferguson, Gary S Collins, Garrett S Bullock,

<h4>Importance</h4>There is limited research investigating injury and illness among professional basketball players during their rookie season. By improving the understanding of injury incidence and risk specific to rookie players, sports medicine clinicians may be able to further individualize injury mitigation programs that address the unique needs of rookie players.<h4>Objective</h4>To compare ... Read more >>

JAMA Netw Open (JAMA network open)
[2021, 4(10):e2128199]

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Clinical Prediction Models in Sports Medicine: A Guide for Clinicians and Researchers.

Garrett S Bullock, Tom Hughes, Jamie C Sergeant, Michael J Callaghan, Richard D Riley, Gary S Collins,

<h4>Synopsis</h4>Participating in sport carries inherent risk of injury. Clinicians execute high-level clinical reasoning and decision making to support athletes to achieve the best outcomes. Accurately diagnosing a problem, estimating prognosis, or selecting the most suitable intervention for each athlete is challenging. Clinical prediction models are tools to assist clinicians in ... Read more >>

J Orthop Sports Phys Ther (The Journal of orthopaedic and sports physical therapy)
[2021, 51(10):517-525]

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Developing clinical prediction models when adhering to minimum sample size recommendations: The importance of quantifying bootstrap variability in tuning parameters and predictive performance.

Glen P Martin, Richard D Riley, Gary S Collins, Matthew Sperrin,

Recent minimum sample size formula (Riley et al.) for developing clinical prediction models help ensure that development datasets are of sufficient size to minimise overfitting. While these criteria are known to avoid excessive overfitting on average, the extent of variability in overfitting at recommended sample sizes is unknown. We investigated ... Read more >>

Stat Methods Med Res (Statistical methods in medical research)
[2021, 30(12):2545-2561]

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Association of Tramadol vs Codeine Prescription Dispensation With Mortality and Other Adverse Clinical Outcomes.

Junqing Xie, Victoria Y Strauss, Daniel Martinez-Laguna, Cristina Carbonell-Abella, Adolfo Diez-Perez, Xavier Nogues, Gary S Collins, Sara Khalid, Antonella Delmestri, Aleksandra Turkiewicz, Martin Englund, Mina Tadrous, Carlen Reyes, Daniel Prieto-Alhambra,

<h4>Importance</h4>Although tramadol is increasingly used to manage chronic noncancer pain, few safety studies have compared it with other opioids.<h4>Objective</h4>To assess the associations of tramadol, compared with codeine, with mortality and other adverse clinical outcomes as used in outpatient settings.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>Retrospective, population-based, propensity score-matched cohort study using a primary ... Read more >>

JAMA (JAMA)
[2021, 326(15):1504-1515]

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A quality assessment tool for artificial intelligence-centered diagnostic test accuracy studies: QUADAS-AI.

Viknesh Sounderajah, Hutan Ashrafian, Sherri Rose, Nigam H Shah, Marzyeh Ghassemi, Robert Golub, Charles E Kahn, Andre Esteva, Alan Karthikesalingam, Bilal Mateen, Dale Webster, Dan Milea, Daniel Ting, Darren Treanor, Dominic Cushnan, Dominic King, Duncan McPherson, Ben Glocker, Felix Greaves, Leanne Harling, Johan Ordish, Jérémie F Cohen, Jon Deeks, Mariska Leeflang, Matthew Diamond, Matthew D F McInnes, Melissa McCradden, Michael D Abràmoff, Pasha Normahani, Sheraz R Markar, Stephanie Chang, Xiaoxuan Liu, Susan Mallett, Shravya Shetty, Alastair Denniston, Gary S Collins, David Moher, Penny Whiting, Patrick M Bossuyt, Ara Darzi,

Nat Med (Nature medicine)
[2021, 27(10):1663-1665]

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A Guideline for Reporting Mediation Analyses of Randomized Trials and Observational Studies: The AGReMA Statement.

Hopin Lee, Aidan G Cashin, Sarah E Lamb, Sally Hopewell, Stijn Vansteelandt, Tyler J VanderWeele, David P MacKinnon, Gemma Mansell, Gary S Collins, Robert M Golub, James H McAuley, , A Russell Localio, Ludo van Amelsvoort, Eliseo Guallar, Judith Rijnhart, Kimberley Goldsmith, Amanda J Fairchild, Cara C Lewis, Steven J Kamper, Christopher M Williams, Nicholas Henschke,

<h4>Importance</h4>Mediation analyses of randomized trials and observational studies can generate evidence about the mechanisms by which interventions and exposures may influence health outcomes. Publications of mediation analyses are increasing, but the quality of their reporting is suboptimal.<h4>Objective</h4>To develop international, consensus-based guidance for the reporting of mediation analyses of randomized trials ... Read more >>

JAMA (JAMA)
[2021, 326(11):1045-1056]

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Flaws in the Development and Validation of a Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prediction Model.

Gary S Collins, Richard D Riley, Maarten van Smeden,

Clin Infect Dis (Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America)
[2021, 73(3):557-558]

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Correction to: Risk factors for the progression of finger interphalangeal joint osteoarthritis: a systematic review.

Karishma Shah, Xiaotian Yang, Jennifer C E Lane, Gary S Collins, Nigel K Arden, Dominic Furniss, Stephanie R Filbay,

Rheumatol Int (Rheumatology international)
[2021, 41(7):1373-1374]

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Persistent joint pain and arm function in former baseball players.

Garrett S Bullock, Kristen F Nicholson, Brian R Waterman, Eric Niesen, Paul Salamh, Charles A Thigpen, Ellen Shanley, Laurie L Devaney, John M Tokish, Gary S Collins, Nigel K Arden, Stephanie R Filbay,

<h4>Background</h4>Baseball has specific sport and positional demands that may modify joint pain compared with other sports. Persistent joint pain reduces function and is an underlying reason for seeking medical care. The pain and functional status of players after they stop competitive play are unknown. Such knowledge can assist clinicians in ... Read more >>

JSES Int (JSES international)
[2021, 5(5):912-919]

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Protocol for development of a reporting guideline (TRIPOD-AI) and risk of bias tool (PROBAST-AI) for diagnostic and prognostic prediction model studies based on artificial intelligence.

Gary S Collins, Paula Dhiman, Constanza L Andaur Navarro, Jie Ma, Lotty Hooft, Johannes B Reitsma, Patricia Logullo, Andrew L Beam, Lily Peng, Ben Van Calster, Maarten van Smeden, Richard D Riley, Karel Gm Moons,

<h4>Introduction</h4>The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model of Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement and the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) were both published to improve the reporting and critical appraisal of prediction model studies for diagnosis and prognosis. This paper describes the processes and methods ... Read more >>

BMJ Open (BMJ open)
[2021, 11(7):e048008]

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Reporting of prognostic clinical prediction models based on machine learning methods in oncology needs to be improved.

Paula Dhiman, Jie Ma, Constanza Andaur Navarro, Benjamin Speich, Garrett Bullock, Johanna Aa Damen, Shona Kirtley, Lotty Hooft, Richard D Riley, Ben Van Calster, Karel G M Moons, Gary S Collins,

<h4>Objective</h4>Evaluate the completeness of reporting of prognostic prediction models developed using machine learning methods in the field of oncology.<h4>Study design and setting</h4>We conducted a systematic review, searching the MEDLINE and Embase databases between 01/01/2019 and 05/09/2019, for non-imaging studies developing a prognostic clinical prediction model using machine learning methods (as ... Read more >>

J Clin Epidemiol (Journal of clinical epidemiology)
[2021, 138:60-72]

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Development and internal validation of a humeral torsion prediction model in professional baseball pitchers.

Garrett S Bullock, Ellen Shanley, Gary S Collins, Nigel K Arden, Thomas K Noonan, Michael J Kissenberth, Douglas J Wyland, Amanda Arnold, Lane B Bailey, Charles A Thigpen,

<h4>Background</h4>Humeral torsion (HT) has been linked to pitching arm injury risk after controlling for shoulder range of motion. Currently measuring HT uses expensive equipment, which inhibits clinical assessment. Developing an HT predictive model can aid clinical baseball arm injury risk examination. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop ... Read more >>

J Shoulder Elbow Surg (Journal of shoulder and elbow surgery)
[2021, 30(12):2832-2838]

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Starting pitchers demonstrate a greater hazard of arm injury compared to relief pitchers.

Garrett S Bullock, Charles A Thigpen, Gary S Collins, Nigel K Arden, Thomas K Noonan, Michael J Kissenberth, Ellen Shanley,

<h4>Context</h4>It is currently unclear how different pitching roles affect arm injury risk in professional pitchers.<h4>Objective</h4>1) Investigate the differences in arm injury hazard between professional baseball starting and relief pitchers; 2) Separately investigate elbow and shoulder injury hazard between professional baseball starting and relief pitchers.<h4>Study design</h4>Prospective cohort Setting: Minor League Baseball ... Read more >>

J Athl Train (Journal of athletic training)
[2021, :]

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Minimum sample size for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a binary outcome.

Richard D Riley, Thomas P A Debray, Gary S Collins, Lucinda Archer, Joie Ensor, Maarten van Smeden, Kym I E Snell,

In prediction model research, external validation is needed to examine an existing model's performance using data independent to that for model development. Current external validation studies often suffer from small sample sizes and consequently imprecise predictive performance estimates. To address this, we propose how to determine the minimum sample size ... Read more >>

Stat Med (Statistics in medicine)
[2021, 40(19):4230-4251]

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Methodology over metrics: current scientific standards are a disservice to patients and society.

Ben Van Calster, Laure Wynants, Richard D Riley, Maarten van Smeden, Gary S Collins,

Covid-19 research made it painfully clear that the scandal of poor medical research, as denounced by Altman in 1994, persists today. The overall quality of medical research remains poor, despite longstanding criticisms. The problems are well known, but the research community fails to properly address them. We suggest that most ... Read more >>

J Clin Epidemiol (Journal of clinical epidemiology)
[2021, 138:219-226]

Cited: 1 time

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Improving Clinical Prognostic Model Methodology: Letter to the Editor.

Garrett S Bullock, Gary S Collins,

Am J Sports Med (The American journal of sports medicine)
[2021, 49(6):NP23-NP25]

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COVID-19 Prediction Models Need Robust and Transparent Development.

Gary S Collins,

Disaster Med Public Health Prep (Disaster medicine and public health preparedness)
[2021, :1-2]

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Clinical prediction models: diagnosis versus prognosis.

Maarten van Smeden, Johannes B Reitsma, Richard D Riley, Gary S Collins, Karel Gm Moons,

Clinical prediction models play an increasingly important role in contemporary clinical care, by informing healthcare professionals, patients and their relatives about outcome risks, with the aim to facilitate (shared) medical decision making and improve health outcomes. Diagnostic prediction models aim to calculate an individual's risk that a disease is already ... Read more >>

J Clin Epidemiol (Journal of clinical epidemiology)
[2021, 132:142-145]

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External validation of clinical prediction models: simulation-based sample size calculations were more reliable than rules-of-thumb.

Kym I E Snell, Lucinda Archer, Joie Ensor, Laura J Bonnett, Thomas P A Debray, Bob Phillips, Gary S Collins, Richard D Riley,

<h4>Introduction</h4>Sample size "rules-of-thumb" for external validation of clinical prediction models suggest at least 100 events and 100 non-events. Such blanket guidance is imprecise, and not specific to the model or validation setting. We investigate factors affecting precision of model performance estimates upon external validation, and propose a more tailored sample ... Read more >>

J Clin Epidemiol (Journal of clinical epidemiology)
[2021, 135:79-89]

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Measuring the success of blinding in placebo-controlled trials: Should we be so quick to dismiss it?

Rebecca K Webster, Felicity Bishop, Gary S Collins, Andrea W M Evers, Tammy Hoffmann, J André Knottnerus, Sarah E Lamb, Helen Macdonald, Claire Madigan, Vitaly Napadow, Amy Price, Jonathan L Rees, Jeremy Howick,

'Blinding' involves concealing knowledge of which trial participants received the interventions from participants themselves and other trial personnel throughout the trial. Blinding reduces bias arising from the beliefs and expectations of these groups. It is agreed that where possible, blinding should be attempted, for example by ensuring that experimental and ... Read more >>

J Clin Epidemiol (Journal of clinical epidemiology)
[2021, 135:176-181]

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