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German Diabetes Risk Score for the Determination of the Individual Type 2 Diabetes Risk.

PMID: 35915922 (view PubMed database entry)
DOI: 10.3238/arztebl.m2022.0268 (read at publisher's website )

Catarina Schiborn, Rebecca Paprott, Christin Heidemann, Tilman Kühn, Andreas Fritsche, Rudolf Kaaks, Matthias B Schulze,

<h4>Background</h4>The German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) currently enables prediction of the individual risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) within five years. The aim of this study is to extend the prediction period of the GDRS, including its non-clinical version and its HbA1c extension, to 10 years, and to perform external validation.<h4>Methods</h4>In data from the Brandenburg Nutrition and Cancer Study (EPIC)-Potsdam (n = 25 393), Cox proportional hazards regression was used to reweight the points that were used to calculate the five-year risk. Two population-based prospective cohorts (EPIC-Heidelberg n = 23 624, BGS98 cohort n = 3717) were used for external validation. Discrimination was represented by C-indices, and calibration by calibration plots and the expected-to-observed (E/O) ratio.<h4>Results</h4>Prediction performance in EPIC-Potsdam was very good (C-index for the non-clinical model: 0.834) and was confirmed in EPIC-Heidelberg (0.843) and in the BGS98 cohort (0.851). Among persons in the BGS98 cohort with a greater than 10% predicted probability of disease, 14.9% developed T2D within 10 years (positive predictive value). The models were very well calibrated in EPIC-Potsdam (E/O ratio for the non-clinical model: 1.08), slightly overestimated the risk in EPIC-Heidelberg (1.34), and predicted T2D very well in the BGS98 cohort after recalibration (1.06).<h4>Conclusion</h4>The extended GDRS prediction period of 10 years, with a non-clinical version and an HbA1c extension that will soon be available in both German and English, enables the even longer-range, evidence-based identification of high-risk individuals with many different applications, including medical screening.

Dtsch Arztebl Int (Deutsches Arzteblatt international)
[2022, (Forthcoming):arztebl.m2022.0268]

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