Yuki Tahata, Ryotaro Sakamori, Ryoko Yamada, Takahiro Kodama, Hayato Hikita, Hideki Hagiwara, Yasuharu Imai, Naoki Hiramatsu, Shinji Tamura, Keiji Yamamoto, Masahide Oshita, Kazuyoshi Ohkawa, Taizo Hijioka, Hiroyuki Fukui, Toshifumi Ito, Yoshinori Doi, Yukinori Yamada, Takayuki Yakushijin, Yuichi Yoshida, Tomohide Tatsumi, Tetsuo Takehara, ,
<h4>Background</h4>Several factors associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence after sustained virological response (SVR) in patients with hepatitis C have been reported. However, few validation studies have been performed in the era of direct-acting anti-virals (DAAs).<h4>Aims</h4>To develop a prediction model for HCC occurrence after DAA-mediated SVR and validate its usefulness.<h4>Methods</h4>We analysed 2209 patients with SVR and without a history of HCC who initiated DAA treatment at 24 Japanese hospitals. These patients were divided into a training set (1473 patients) and a validation set (736 patients).<h4>Results</h4>In the training set, multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that the baseline BMI (≥25.0 kg/m<sup>2</sup> , P = 0.024), baseline fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index (≥3.25, P = 0.001), albumin level at SVR (<4.0 g/dL, P = 0.010) and alpha-foetoprotein level at SVR (≥5.0 ng/mL, P = 0.006) were significantly associated with HCC occurrence. We constructed a prediction model for HCC occurrence with these four factors (2 points were added for the FIB-4 index, and 1 point was added for each of the other three factors). Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis identified a score of 2 as the optimal cut-off value for the prediction model (divided into 0-1 and 2-5). In the validation set, the sensitivity and negative predictive value for HCC occurrence were 87.5% and 99.7%, respectively, at 2 years and 71.4% and 98.0%, respectively, at 3 years.<h4>Conclusion</h4>A prediction model combining these four factors contributes to an efficient surveillance strategy for HCC occurrence after DAA-mediated SVR.
Aliment Pharmacol Ther (Alimentary pharmacology & therapeutics)
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